Davos vs Plzen
Bets: Plzen +1.5 -200 , Total Under 5.5 -143
CHL regular season winners Plzen take their perfect record in this years CHL to Switzerland to face HC Davos in their opening match of the playoffs.
After wining their opening 3 games in the CHL; including an impressive 8-2 win on home ice against Eisbaren berlin; the Swiss side dropped 3 straight and enter the playoffs as the lowest ranked side remaining. Davos has also struggled a little in the Swiss NLA where they currently 10th through 19 games.
While Plzen have been flying high in the CHL their performance in the Czech Extraliga is a little more mixed. Currently they sit 7th in the league although are on a 3 game winning run after dropping 3 of 4 prior to that and being shut out in the 3 loses.
A look at what the PuckR model makes of this game:
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HC Davos PuckR 1602 · Off 106.3 · Def 89.7 · 10d rest | — | — | 44.3% | +126 | — |
| HC Plzeň PuckR 1716 · Off 96.8 · Def 87.1 · 9d rest | — | — | 55.7% | -126 | — |
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 | +110 | 47.6% | 35.0% | +186 | -12.6% |
| Under 5.5 | -143 | 58.9% | 65.0% | -186 | +6.2% |
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home (reg) | -118 | 54.1% | 33.0% | +203 | -21.1% |
| Draw | +320 | 23.8% | 22.6% | +343 | -1.2% |
| Away (reg) | +195 | 33.9% | 44.4% | +125 | +10.5% |
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away -1.5 | — | — | 30.5% | +228 | — |
| Home +1.5 | — | — | 69.5% | -228 | — |
Goalie: unconfirmed — no adjustment
STANDARD ratings well-formed
The model makes Plzen a small road favourite in this matchup whereas the markets lean to Davos on home ice. One of ths issues with modelling the matchups in the CHL is how to weight the varying leagues across Europe against themselves, for this I do have the Swiss league weighted stronger than the Czech league base on interleagues scores over the last 6 years and even with home ice advantage for Davos included still make Plzen a slight favourite based on goal expectancy calculations.
With that in mind I will make a play on Plzen on the +1.5 puck line for this game. Scoring should be lower with both teams being well above average defensively. I am also taking the total under 5.5 for this reason with total expected goals at 4.84 for this matchup. Worth noting that this is a 2 legged tie so the liklihood of a team pulling the goalie late in the game is reduced which; in theory at least; helps both the under bet and the +1.5 puck line.
The 2 leg tie does somewhat make the goal distributions in the model incorrect however the biggest single affect of this is that the number of outcomes that finish on 5 total goals score reduces as a number of these outcomes now end with 4 goals instead. This adjustment doesn't affect either bet in any meaningful way.