AIHL Projections 22nd Aug

Josh Boulton

— 5 min read
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AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-08-21 12:20 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

Top value bets · edge > +3%

GameMarketBetOddsImpliedModelEdge
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Brisbane LightningMoneylineBrisbane Lightning+35022.2%42.4%+20.2%
Perth Thunder @ Adelaide AdrenalineTotalUnder 8.5+12045.5%58.5%+13.0%
Newcastle Northstars @ Central Coast Rhinos3:45 PM AEST
Projected xG · Central Coast Rhinos 3.38 · Newcastle Northstars 6.84 · total 10.21
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Central Coast Rhinos+37521.1%17.0%+489-4.1%
Newcastle Northstars-66787.0%83.0%-489-3.9%
Total goals · line 9.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 9.5-16762.5%56.8%-131-5.8%
Under 9.5+12045.5%43.2%+131-2.2%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 0.7%4 goals: 1.6%5 goals: 3.2%6 goals: 5.7%7 goals: 8.6%8 goals: 11.0%9 goals: 12.5%10 goals: 12.5%11 goals: 11.9%12 goals: 9.8%13 goals: 7.8%14 goals: 5.7%15 goals: 3.8%16 goals: 2.3%17 goals: 1.4%18 goals: 0.8%19 goals: 0.9%9.53579111315171913%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Brisbane Lightning4:45 PM AEST
Projected xG · Brisbane Lightning 5.25 · Sydney Ice Dogs 5.98 · total 11.22
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Brisbane Lightning+35022.2%42.4%+136+20.2%
Sydney Ice Dogs-62586.2%57.6%-136-28.6%
Total goals · line 10.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 10.5-16762.5%56.8%-131-5.8%
Under 10.5+12045.5%43.2%+131-2.3%
Projected total goals
4 goals: 1.1%5 goals: 1.7%6 goals: 3.5%7 goals: 5.9%8 goals: 8.4%9 goals: 10.5%10 goals: 12.1%11 goals: 12.2%12 goals: 11.3%13 goals: 9.8%14 goals: 7.8%15 goals: 5.7%16 goals: 4.0%17 goals: 2.5%18 goals: 1.6%19 goals: 0.9%20 goals: 0.5%21 goals: 0.5%10.546810121416182012%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Canberra Brave @ Melbourne Ice5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Melbourne Ice 4.66 · Canberra Brave 4.79 · total 9.45
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Melbourne Ice-11152.6%48.3%+107-4.3%
Canberra Brave-12555.6%51.7%-107-3.9%
Total goals · line 9.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 9.5+10050.0%47.1%+112-2.9%
Under 9.5-13958.2%52.9%-112-5.2%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 1.2%4 goals: 2.3%5 goals: 4.7%6 goals: 7.8%7 goals: 10.8%8 goals: 12.6%9 goals: 13.5%10 goals: 12.7%11 goals: 10.9%12 goals: 8.6%13 goals: 5.8%14 goals: 3.9%15 goals: 2.4%16 goals: 1.4%17 goals: 0.8%18 goals: 0.7%9.535791113151713%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Perth Thunder @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:45 PM ACST
Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 2.78 · Perth Thunder 5.29 · total 8.07
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Adelaide Adrenaline+32523.5%21.6%+363-1.9%
Perth Thunder-55684.8%78.4%-363-6.3%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5-16762.5%41.5%+141-21.0%
Under 8.5+12045.5%58.5%-141+13.0%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 1.1%3 goals: 2.6%4 goals: 5.2%5 goals: 8.8%6 goals: 12.3%7 goals: 14.1%8 goals: 14.4%9 goals: 12.6%10 goals: 10.1%11 goals: 7.4%12 goals: 5.0%13 goals: 3.0%14 goals: 1.7%15 goals: 0.9%16 goals: 0.8%8.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.

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