AIHL projections 8th Aug

Josh Boulton

— 6 min read
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AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-08-08 15:33 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

Top value bets · edge > +3%

GameMarketBetOddsImpliedModelEdge
Brisbane Lightning @ Adelaide AdrenalineTotalUnder 10.5+11546.5%60.0%+13.4%
Melbourne Mustangs @ Perth ThunderMoneylinePerth Thunder+11047.6%58.8%+11.2%
Melbourne Ice @ Canberra BraveMoneylineMelbourne Ice+17037.0%43.5%+6.4%
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Newcastle NorthstarsMoneylineSydney Ice Dogs+25028.6%33.8%+5.2%
Brisbane Lightning @ Adelaide AdrenalineMoneylineBrisbane Lightning-11854.1%58.2%+4.1%
Melbourne Ice @ Canberra Brave13:00
Projected xG · Canberra Brave 5.02 · Melbourne Ice 4.42 · total 9.44
back-to-back: Canberra Brave & Melbourne Ice · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Canberra Brave-23870.4%56.5%-130-13.9%
Melbourne Ice+17037.0%43.5%+130+6.4%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5-14158.5%60.2%-151+1.7%
Under 8.5+10050.0%39.8%+151-10.2%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 1.3%4 goals: 2.4%5 goals: 4.8%6 goals: 7.8%7 goals: 10.7%8 goals: 12.8%9 goals: 13.4%10 goals: 12.5%11 goals: 10.7%12 goals: 8.4%13 goals: 5.9%14 goals: 4.0%15 goals: 2.5%16 goals: 1.4%17 goals: 0.8%18 goals: 0.8%8.535791113151713%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Newcastle Northstars4:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Newcastle Northstars 5.34 · Sydney Ice Dogs 3.89 · total 9.23
back-to-back: Newcastle Northstars & Sydney Ice Dogs · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Newcastle Northstars-40080.0%66.2%-196-13.8%
Sydney Ice Dogs+25028.6%33.8%+196+5.2%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5-16762.5%57.7%-136-4.9%
Under 8.5+12045.5%42.3%+136-3.1%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 1.5%4 goals: 2.7%5 goals: 5.3%6 goals: 8.4%7 goals: 11.2%8 goals: 13.2%9 goals: 13.5%10 goals: 12.3%11 goals: 10.3%12 goals: 7.9%13 goals: 5.5%14 goals: 3.6%15 goals: 2.1%16 goals: 1.2%17 goals: 0.7%18 goals: 0.6%8.535791113151713%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Central Coast Rhinos @ Sydney Bears5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Sydney Bears 5.65 · Central Coast Rhinos 3.62 · total 9.27
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Sydney Bears-40080.0%72.0%-257-8.0%
Central Coast Rhinos+25028.6%28.0%+257-0.6%
Total goals · line 9.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 9.5-11854.1%44.7%+124-9.5%
Under 9.5-11854.1%55.3%-124+1.2%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 1.4%4 goals: 2.6%5 goals: 5.2%6 goals: 8.4%7 goals: 11.2%8 goals: 13.0%9 goals: 13.5%10 goals: 12.6%11 goals: 10.6%12 goals: 8.0%13 goals: 5.4%14 goals: 3.5%15 goals: 2.1%16 goals: 1.2%17 goals: 0.6%18 goals: 0.6%9.535791113151713%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Brisbane Lightning @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:45 PM ACST
Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 4.57 · Brisbane Lightning 5.32 · total 9.89
back-to-back: Adelaide Adrenaline & Brisbane Lightning · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Adelaide Adrenaline-11854.1%41.8%+139-12.3%
Brisbane Lightning-11854.1%58.2%-139+4.1%
Total goals · line 10.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 10.5-15460.6%40.0%+150-20.6%
Under 10.5+11546.5%60.0%-150+13.4%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 0.9%4 goals: 1.8%5 goals: 3.8%6 goals: 6.3%7 goals: 9.4%8 goals: 11.9%9 goals: 13.0%10 goals: 12.9%11 goals: 11.3%12 goals: 9.4%13 goals: 7.2%14 goals: 4.9%15 goals: 3.2%16 goals: 1.9%17 goals: 1.0%18 goals: 0.6%19 goals: 0.6%10.53579111315171913%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Melbourne Mustangs @ Perth Thunder4:00 PM AWST
Projected xG · Perth Thunder 4.76 · Melbourne Mustangs 3.99 · total 8.76
back-to-back: Perth Thunder & Melbourne Mustangs · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Perth Thunder+11047.6%58.8%-143+11.2%
Melbourne Mustangs-14358.9%41.2%+143-17.7%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5-11854.1%51.3%-106-2.8%
Under 8.5-11854.1%48.7%+106-5.5%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 0.6%3 goals: 1.5%4 goals: 3.5%5 goals: 6.6%6 goals: 9.9%7 goals: 12.7%8 goals: 13.9%9 goals: 13.3%10 goals: 11.7%11 goals: 9.1%12 goals: 6.7%13 goals: 4.4%14 goals: 2.7%15 goals: 1.6%16 goals: 0.8%17 goals: 0.8%8.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.

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