AIHL projections 23rd Aug

Josh Boulton

— 4 min read
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AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-08-22 13:18 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

Top value bets · edge > +3%

GameMarketBetOddsImpliedModelEdge
Newcastle Northstars @ Sydney BearsMoneylineNewcastle Northstars+15539.2%58.9%+19.7%
Canberra Brave @ Melbourne Mustangs2:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Melbourne Mustangs 4.44 · Canberra Brave 4.36 · total 8.80
back-to-back: Canberra Brave · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Melbourne Mustangs-12555.6%50.9%-104-4.7%
Canberra Brave-11152.6%49.1%+104-3.5%
Total goals · line 7.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 7.5-16762.5%65.5%-190+3.0%
Under 7.5+12045.5%34.5%+190-11.0%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 0.6%3 goals: 1.5%4 goals: 3.5%5 goals: 6.4%6 goals: 9.9%7 goals: 12.5%8 goals: 13.7%9 goals: 13.5%10 goals: 11.6%11 goals: 9.5%12 goals: 6.6%13 goals: 4.4%14 goals: 2.8%15 goals: 1.6%16 goals: 0.9%17 goals: 0.8%7.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Newcastle Northstars @ Sydney Bears5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Sydney Bears 3.91 · Newcastle Northstars 4.67 · total 8.58
back-to-back: Newcastle Northstars · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Sydney Bears-20867.5%41.1%+143-26.4%
Newcastle Northstars+15539.2%58.9%-143+19.7%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5-13958.2%48.6%+106-9.5%
Under 8.5+10050.0%51.4%-106+1.4%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 0.7%3 goals: 1.7%4 goals: 4.1%5 goals: 7.1%6 goals: 10.4%7 goals: 13.2%8 goals: 14.1%9 goals: 13.2%10 goals: 11.4%11 goals: 8.8%12 goals: 6.1%13 goals: 4.0%14 goals: 2.4%15 goals: 1.4%16 goals: 0.7%17 goals: 0.7%8.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Perth Thunder @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:15 PM ACST
Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 2.66 · Perth Thunder 5.32 · total 7.98
back-to-back: Adelaide Adrenaline & Perth Thunder · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Adelaide Adrenaline+27526.7%20.4%+391-6.3%
Perth Thunder-45582.0%79.7%-391-2.3%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5+10050.0%40.2%+148-9.8%
Under 8.5-13958.2%59.8%-148+1.6%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 1.1%3 goals: 2.7%4 goals: 5.5%5 goals: 9.2%6 goals: 12.5%7 goals: 14.3%8 goals: 14.3%9 goals: 12.8%10 goals: 10.1%11 goals: 7.0%12 goals: 4.6%13 goals: 2.7%14 goals: 1.6%15 goals: 0.8%16 goals: 0.7%8.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.

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