AIHL Projections July 26th

Josh Boulton

— 4 min read
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AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-07-25 12:54 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

Top value bets · edge > +3%

GameMarketBetOddsImpliedModelEdge
Brisbane Lightning @ Melbourne IceTotalOver 9.5-11854.1%76.4%+22.2%
Brisbane Lightning @ Melbourne IceMoneylineBrisbane Lightning+57514.8%25.6%+10.8%
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Canberra BraveMoneylineSydney Ice Dogs+17536.4%42.5%+6.1%
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Canberra Brave14:00
Projected xG · Canberra Brave 4.90 · Sydney Ice Dogs 4.23 · total 9.14
back-to-back: Sydney Ice Dogs · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Canberra Brave-25071.4%57.5%-135-13.9%
Sydney Ice Dogs+17536.4%42.5%+135+6.1%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5-11854.1%56.3%-129+2.2%
Under 8.5-11854.1%43.7%+129-10.5%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 1.6%4 goals: 2.9%5 goals: 5.5%6 goals: 8.8%7 goals: 11.6%8 goals: 13.2%9 goals: 13.4%10 goals: 12.3%11 goals: 10.2%12 goals: 7.6%13 goals: 5.2%14 goals: 3.4%15 goals: 2.1%16 goals: 1.1%17 goals: 0.6%18 goals: 0.6%8.535791113151713%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Brisbane Lightning @ Melbourne Ice2:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Melbourne Ice 7.29 · Brisbane Lightning 4.71 · total 12.00
back-to-back: Brisbane Lightning · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Melbourne Ice-111191.7%74.4%-290-17.4%
Brisbane Lightning+57514.8%25.6%+290+10.8%
Total goals · line 9.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 9.5-11854.1%76.4%-323+22.2%
Under 9.5-11854.1%23.6%+323-30.5%
Projected total goals
4 goals: 0.6%5 goals: 1.1%6 goals: 2.4%7 goals: 4.2%8 goals: 6.5%9 goals: 8.9%10 goals: 10.6%11 goals: 11.8%12 goals: 11.8%13 goals: 10.7%14 goals: 9.1%15 goals: 7.3%16 goals: 5.5%17 goals: 3.6%18 goals: 2.5%19 goals: 1.5%20 goals: 0.9%21 goals: 0.5%22 goals: 0.5%9.54681012141618202212%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Sydney Bears @ Central Coast Rhinos3:45 PM AEST
Projected xG · Central Coast Rhinos 3.92 · Sydney Bears 5.01 · total 8.93
back-to-back: Sydney Bears · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Central Coast Rhinos+15040.0%37.2%+169-2.8%
Sydney Bears-20066.7%62.8%-169-3.9%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5-12555.6%53.6%-116-1.9%
Under 8.5-11152.6%46.4%+116-6.2%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 1.8%4 goals: 3.3%5 goals: 6.0%6 goals: 9.5%7 goals: 12.2%8 goals: 13.6%9 goals: 13.5%10 goals: 12.3%11 goals: 9.8%12 goals: 7.0%13 goals: 4.7%14 goals: 2.9%15 goals: 1.7%16 goals: 0.9%17 goals: 0.9%8.535791113