AIHL projections July 25th

Josh Boulton

— 4 min read
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AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-07-21 16:18 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

Top value bets · edge > +3%

GameMarketBetOddsImpliedModelEdge
Brisbane Lightning @ Melbourne MustangsMoneylineBrisbane Lightning+80011.1%25.2%+14.1%
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Sydney BearsMoneylineSydney Ice Dogs+10050.0%59.0%+9.1%
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Sydney BearsTotalUnder 9.5-13958.2%63.2%+5.1%
Newcastle Northstars @ Perth ThunderMoneylinePerth Thunder-11152.6%55.7%+3.0%
Brisbane Lightning @ Melbourne Mustangs5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Melbourne Mustangs 7.08 · Brisbane Lightning 4.48 · total 11.57
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Melbourne Mustangs-250096.2%74.8%-297-21.4%
Brisbane Lightning+80011.1%25.2%+297+14.1%
Total goals · line 11.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 11.5-11854.1%48.8%+105-5.3%
Under 11.5-11854.1%51.2%-105-3.0%
Projected total goals
4 goals: 0.8%5 goals: 1.5%6 goals: 3.0%7 goals: 5.0%8 goals: 7.6%9 goals: 9.8%10 goals: 11.5%11 goals: 11.9%12 goals: 11.6%13 goals: 10.3%14 goals: 8.6%15 goals: 6.3%16 goals: 4.6%17 goals: 3.1%18 goals: 2.0%19 goals: 1.1%20 goals: 0.7%21 goals: 0.7%11.546810121416182012%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Sydney Bears5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Sydney Bears 3.95 · Sydney Ice Dogs 4.73 · total 8.68
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Sydney Bears-13958.2%41.0%+144-17.2%
Sydney Ice Dogs+10050.0%59.0%-144+9.1%
Total goals · line 9.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 9.5+10050.0%36.8%+172-13.2%
Under 9.5-13958.2%63.2%-172+5.1%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 0.6%3 goals: 1.6%4 goals: 3.8%5 goals: 6.9%6 goals: 10.1%7 goals: 12.9%8 goals: 14.0%9 goals: 13.3%10 goals: 11.6%11 goals: 9.0%12 goals: 6.4%13 goals: 4.2%14 goals: 2.5%15 goals: 1.5%16 goals: 0.8%17 goals: 0.7%9.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Newcastle Northstars @ Perth Thunder4:00 PM AWST
Projected xG · Perth Thunder 4.58 · Newcastle Northstars 4.10 · total 8.68
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Perth Thunder-11152.6%55.7%-126+3.0%
Newcastle Northstars-12555.6%44.3%+126-11.2%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5-11854.1%50.1%-100-4.0%
Under 8.5-11854.1%49.9%+100-4.2%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 0.6%3 goals: 1.7%4 goals: 3.8%5 goals: 6.9%6 goals: 10.3%7 goals: 12.8%8 goals: 13.9%9 goals: 13.5%10 goals: 11.7%11 goals: 9.2%12 goals: 6.3%13 goals: 4.1%14 goals: 2.5%15 goals: 1.4%16 goals: 0.8%17 goals: 0.7%8.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.

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