AIHL Projections July 17th/18th
AIHL Betting Dashboard
Generated 2026-07-13 15:35 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 Poisson sims/game
Top value bets · edge > +3%
| Game | Market | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Adrenaline @ Newcastle Northstars | Total | Under 9.5 | -105 | 51.2% | 62.4% | +11.2% |
| Melbourne Ice @ Melbourne Mustangs | Moneyline | Melbourne Ice | +110 | 47.6% | 58.7% | +11.1% |
| Melbourne Ice @ Melbourne Mustangs | Total | Under 10.5 | -118 | 54.1% | 58.2% | +4.0% |
| Canberra Brave @ Brisbane Lightning | Total | Over 9.5 | -133 | 57.1% | 60.9% | +3.8% |
Melbourne Ice @ Melbourne Mustangs7:30 PM AEST
Projected xG · Melbourne Mustangs 4.65 · Melbourne Ice 5.37 · total 10.02
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Mustangs | -143 | 58.9% | 41.3% | +142 | -17.6% |
| Melbourne Ice | +110 | 47.6% | 58.7% | -142 | +11.1% |
Total goals · line 10.5
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 | -118 | 54.1% | 41.8% | +139 | -12.3% |
| Under 10.5 | -118 | 54.1% | 58.2% | -139 | +4.0% |
Adelaide Adrenaline @ Newcastle Northstars5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Newcastle Northstars 6.14 · Adelaide Adrenaline 2.57 · total 8.72
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Northstars | -3333 | 97.1% | 88.7% | -787 | -8.4% |
| Adelaide Adrenaline | +900 | 10.0% | 11.3% | +787 | +1.3% |
Total goals · line 9.5
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | -133 | 57.1% | 37.6% | +166 | -19.5% |
| Under 9.5 | -105 | 51.2% | 62.4% | -166 | +11.2% |
Central Coast Rhinos @ Sydney Ice Dogs5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Sydney Ice Dogs 6.34 · Central Coast Rhinos 4.09 · total 10.43
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Ice Dogs | -263 | 72.5% | 75.3% | -305 | +2.9% |
| Central Coast Rhinos | +185 | 35.1% | 24.7% | +305 | -10.4% |
Total goals · line 10.5
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 | -118 | 54.1% | 47.0% | +113 | -7.1% |
| Under 10.5 | -118 | 54.1% | 53.0% | -113 | -1.2% |
Canberra Brave @ Brisbane Lightning3:45 PM AEST
Projected xG · Brisbane Lightning 4.82 · Canberra Brave 5.73 · total 10.55
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lightning | +175 | 36.4% | 39.0% | +156 | +2.7% |
| Canberra Brave | -250 | 71.4% | 61.0% | -156 | -10.5% |
Total goals · line 9.5
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | -133 | 57.1% | 60.9% | -156 | +3.8% |
| Under 9.5 | -105 | 51.2% | 39.1% | +156 | -12.1% |
Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.