AIHL Projections July 11th
AIHL Games
Generated 2026-07-07 11:11 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 Poisson sims/game
Top value bets · edge > +3%
| Game | Market | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Mustangs @ Adelaide Adrenaline | Total | Under 10.5 | +100 | 50.0% | 77.7% | +27.7% |
| Sydney Bears @ Newcastle Northstars | Total | Under 9.5 | +120 | 45.5% | 66.5% | +21.1% |
| Melbourne Ice @ Perth Thunder | Total | Under 10.5 | +120 | 45.5% | 65.9% | +20.4% |
| Sydney Bears @ Newcastle Northstars | Moneyline | Sydney Bears | +220 | 31.2% | 39.7% | +8.5% |
| Brisbane Lightning @ Sydney Ice Dogs | Moneyline | Brisbane Lightning | +230 | 30.3% | 38.4% | +8.1% |
| Melbourne Mustangs @ Adelaide Adrenaline | Moneyline | Adelaide Adrenaline | +325 | 23.5% | 27.9% | +4.3% |
| Brisbane Lightning @ Sydney Ice Dogs | Total | Over 10.5 | +100 | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.9% |
Sydney Bears @ Newcastle Northstars5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Newcastle Northstars 4.59 · Sydney Bears 3.83 · total 8.41
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Northstars | -333 | 76.9% | 60.3% | -152 | -16.6% |
| Sydney Bears | +220 | 31.2% | 39.7% | +152 | +8.5% |
Total goals · line 9.5
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | -167 | 62.5% | 33.5% | +199 | -29.1% |
| Under 9.5 | +120 | 45.5% | 66.5% | -199 | +21.1% |
Brisbane Lightning @ Sydney Ice Dogs5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Sydney Ice Dogs 6.00 · Brisbane Lightning 4.99 · total 10.98
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Ice Dogs | -357 | 78.1% | 61.6% | -160 | -16.5% |
| Brisbane Lightning | +230 | 30.3% | 38.4% | +160 | +8.1% |
Total goals · line 10.5
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 | +100 | 50.0% | 53.9% | -117 | +3.9% |
| Under 10.5 | -139 | 58.2% | 46.1% | +117 | -12.1% |
Melbourne Mustangs @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:45 PM ACST
Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 3.33 · Melbourne Mustangs 5.04 · total 8.37
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Adrenaline | +325 | 23.5% | 27.9% | +259 | +4.3% |
| Melbourne Mustangs | -556 | 84.8% | 72.2% | -259 | -12.6% |
Total goals · line 10.5
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 | -139 | 58.2% | 22.3% | +349 | -35.9% |
| Under 10.5 | +100 | 50.0% | 77.7% | -349 | +27.7% |
Melbourne Ice @ Perth Thunder4:00 PM AWST
Projected xG · Perth Thunder 5.29 · Melbourne Ice 4.10 · total 9.39
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perth Thunder | -167 | 62.5% | 64.9% | -185 | +2.3% |
| Melbourne Ice | +120 | 45.5% | 35.1% | +185 | -10.3% |
Total goals · line 10.5
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 | -167 | 62.5% | 34.1% | +193 | -28.4% |
| Under 10.5 | +120 | 45.5% | 65.9% | -193 | +20.4% |
Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.