AIHL Projections Aug 8th

Josh Boulton

— 4 min read
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AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-08-02 13:02 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

Top value bets · edge > +3%

GameMarketBetOddsImpliedModelEdge
Brisbane Lightning @ Adelaide AdrenalineTotalUnder 10.5-11854.1%62.7%+8.6%
Melbourne Mustangs @ Perth ThunderTotalUnder 9.5-11854.1%61.0%+6.8%
Melbourne Mustangs @ Perth ThunderMoneylinePerth Thunder-13357.1%60.9%+3.9%
Melbourne Ice @ Canberra Brave17:00
Projected xG · Canberra Brave 4.97 · Melbourne Ice 4.58 · total 9.55
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Canberra Brave-17263.2%54.3%-119-8.9%
Melbourne Ice+12544.4%45.7%+119+1.2%
Total goals · line 9.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 9.5-10551.2%48.3%+107-2.9%
Under 9.5-13357.1%51.7%-107-5.4%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 1.2%4 goals: 2.3%5 goals: 4.5%6 goals: 7.5%7 goals: 10.3%8 goals: 12.6%9 goals: 13.2%10 goals: 12.5%11 goals: 11.0%12 goals: 8.7%13 goals: 6.2%14 goals: 4.2%15 goals: 2.6%16 goals: 1.5%17 goals: 0.8%18 goals: 0.9%9.535791113151713%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Brisbane Lightning @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:45 PM ACST
Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 4.48 · Brisbane Lightning 5.19 · total 9.67
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Adelaide Adrenaline-11152.6%42.2%+137-10.4%
Brisbane Lightning-12555.6%57.8%-137+2.2%
Total goals · line 10.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 10.5-11854.1%37.3%+168-16.9%
Under 10.5-11854.1%62.7%-168+8.6%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 1.1%4 goals: 2.1%5 goals: 4.2%6 goals: 7.1%7 goals: 9.9%8 goals: 12.3%9 goals: 13.3%10 goals: 12.7%11 goals: 11.1%12 goals: 8.8%13 goals: 6.5%14 goals: 4.5%15 goals: 2.8%16 goals: 1.7%17 goals: 0.9%18 goals: 1.0%10.535791113151713%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Melbourne Mustangs @ Perth Thunder4:00 PM AWST
Projected xG · Perth Thunder 4.90 · Melbourne Mustangs 3.95 · total 8.85
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Perth Thunder-13357.1%60.9%-156+3.9%
Melbourne Mustangs-10551.2%39.1%+156-12.2%
Total goals · line 9.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 9.5-11854.1%39.0%+156-15.1%
Under 9.5-11854.1%61.0%-156+6.8%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 0.5%3 goals: 1.5%4 goals: 3.4%5 goals: 6.4%6 goals: 9.6%7 goals: 12.3%8 goals: 13.6%9 goals: 13.6%10 goals: 12.1%11 goals: 9.5%12 goals: 6.8%13 goals: 4.5%14 goals: 2.8%15 goals: 1.6%16 goals: 0.9%17 goals: 0.8%9.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.

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