AIHL Projections Aug 2nd

Josh Boulton

— 5 min read
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AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-08-01 11:28 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

Top value bets · edge > +3%

GameMarketBetOddsImpliedModelEdge
Perth Thunder @ Newcastle NorthstarsMoneylinePerth Thunder+19533.9%50.2%+16.3%
Perth Thunder @ Newcastle NorthstarsTotalUnder 9.5-11854.1%62.8%+8.6%
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Adelaide AdrenalineTotalUnder 8.5+10050.0%56.7%+6.7%
Sydney Bears @ Melbourne IceTotalUnder 9.5+10050.0%55.2%+5.2%
Sydney Bears @ Melbourne IceMoneylineSydney Bears+23030.3%34.1%+3.8%
Central Coast Rhinos @ Canberra Brave14:00
Projected xG · Canberra Brave 6.64 · Central Coast Rhinos 3.34 · total 9.98
back-to-back: Canberra Brave & Central Coast Rhinos · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Canberra Brave-83389.3%82.2%-460-7.1%
Central Coast Rhinos+45018.2%17.9%+460-0.3%
Total goals · line 9.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 9.5-11854.1%54.0%-117-0.2%
Under 9.5-11854.1%46.0%+117-8.1%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 0.8%4 goals: 1.8%5 goals: 3.6%6 goals: 6.3%7 goals: 9.3%8 goals: 11.5%9 goals: 12.7%10 goals: 12.8%11 goals: 11.6%12 goals: 9.5%13 goals: 7.2%14 goals: 5.0%15 goals: 3.4%16 goals: 2.1%17 goals: 1.2%18 goals: 0.6%19 goals: 0.7%9.53579111315171913%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Sydney Bears @ Melbourne Ice2:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Melbourne Ice 5.35 · Sydney Bears 3.93 · total 9.28
back-to-back: Melbourne Ice & Sydney Bears · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Melbourne Ice-35778.1%65.9%-193-12.2%
Sydney Bears+23030.3%34.1%+193+3.8%
Total goals · line 9.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 9.5-13958.2%44.8%+123-13.3%
Under 9.5+10050.0%55.2%-123+5.2%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 1.4%4 goals: 2.6%5 goals: 5.3%6 goals: 8.2%7 goals: 11.0%8 goals: 13.2%9 goals: 13.4%10 goals: 12.4%11 goals: 10.4%12 goals: 8.0%13 goals: 5.6%14 goals: 3.7%15 goals: 2.2%16 goals: 1.3%17 goals: 0.7%18 goals: 0.6%9.535791113151713%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Perth Thunder @ Newcastle Northstars4:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Newcastle Northstars 4.36 · Perth Thunder 4.37 · total 8.73
back-to-back: Perth Thunder · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Newcastle Northstars-28674.1%49.8%+101-24.3%
Perth Thunder+19533.9%50.2%-101+16.3%
Total goals · line 9.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 9.5-11854.1%37.2%+168-16.9%
Under 9.5-11854.1%62.8%-168+8.6%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 0.6%3 goals: 1.6%4 goals: 3.6%5 goals: 6.7%6 goals: 10.1%7 goals: 12.7%8 goals: 13.9%9 goals: 13.4%10 goals: 11.9%11 goals: 9.3%12 goals: 6.4%13 goals: 4.2%14 goals: 2.5%15 goals: 1.5%16 goals: 0.8%17 goals: 0.7%9.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:15 PM ACST
Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 3.03 · Sydney Ice Dogs 5.16 · total 8.19
back-to-back: Sydney Ice Dogs · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Adelaide Adrenaline+25028.6%25.6%+291-3.0%
Sydney Ice Dogs-40080.0%74.4%-291-5.6%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5-13958.2%43.3%+131-14.9%
Under 8.5+10050.0%56.7%-131+6.7%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 1.0%3 goals: 2.3%4 goals: 5.0%5 goals: 8.3%6 goals: 11.9%7 goals: 13.9%8 goals: 14.4%9 goals: 12.8%10 goals: 10.4%11 goals: 7.7%12 goals: 5.3%13 goals: 3.2%14 goals: 1.8%15 goals: 1.0%16 goals: 0.9%8.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.

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