AIHL Projections Aug 1st

Josh Boulton

— 4 min read
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AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-07-27 12:20 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

Top value bets · edge > +3%

GameMarketBetOddsImpliedModelEdge
Canberra Brave @ Central Coast RhinosTotalOver 8.5-11854.1%64.7%+10.5%
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Melbourne IceMoneylineSydney Ice Dogs+17037.0%44.4%+7.4%
Canberra Brave @ Central Coast RhinosMoneylineCanberra Brave-25071.4%77.2%+5.8%
Perth Thunder @ Sydney BearsMoneylineSydney Bears+23030.3%35.3%+5.0%
Canberra Brave @ Central Coast Rhinos3:45 PM AEST
Projected xG · Central Coast Rhinos 3.57 · Canberra Brave 6.24 · total 9.81
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Central Coast Rhinos+17536.4%22.8%+339-13.6%
Canberra Brave-25071.4%77.2%-339+5.8%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5-11854.1%64.7%-183+10.5%
Under 8.5-11854.1%35.3%+183-18.8%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 1.0%4 goals: 2.0%5 goals: 4.0%6 goals: 6.7%7 goals: 9.7%8 goals: 12.0%9 goals: 12.9%10 goals: 12.7%11 goals: 11.2%12 goals: 9.3%13 goals: 6.9%14 goals: 4.7%15 goals: 3.0%16 goals: 1.9%17 goals: 1.0%18 goals: 0.6%19 goals: 0.6%8.53579111315171913%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Sydney Ice Dogs @ Melbourne Ice5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Melbourne Ice 5.24 · Sydney Ice Dogs 4.73 · total 9.98
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Melbourne Ice-23870.4%55.6%-125-14.8%
Sydney Ice Dogs+17037.0%44.4%+125+7.4%
Total goals · line 9.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 9.5-11854.1%54.1%-118-0.1%
Under 9.5-11854.1%45.9%+118-8.2%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 0.8%4 goals: 1.7%5 goals: 3.6%6 goals: 6.2%7 goals: 9.1%8 goals: 11.5%9 goals: 12.9%10 goals: 12.9%11 goals: 11.5%12 goals: 9.6%13 goals: 7.2%14 goals: 5.1%15 goals: 3.3%16 goals: 2.0%17 goals: 1.2%18 goals: 0.6%19 goals: 0.6%9.53579111315171913%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Perth Thunder @ Sydney Bears5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Sydney Bears 3.46 · Perth Thunder 4.67 · total 8.14
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Sydney Bears+23030.3%35.3%+183+5.0%
Perth Thunder-35778.1%64.7%-183-13.4%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5+10050.0%42.5%+135-7.5%
Under 8.5-13958.2%57.5%-135-0.7%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 1.0%3 goals: 2.3%4 goals: 5.1%5 goals: 8.8%6 goals: 12.1%7 goals: 14.0%8 goals: 14.2%9 goals: 13.2%10 goals: 10.5%11 goals: 7.5%12 goals: 4.9%13 goals: 3.0%14 goals: 1.7%15 goals: 0.9%16 goals: 0.8%8.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.

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