AIHL games July 19th

Josh Boulton

— 4 min read
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AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-07-18 20:38 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

Top value bets · edge > +3%

GameMarketBetOddsImpliedModelEdge
Sydney Bears @ Melbourne MustangsMoneylineSydney Bears+25028.6%40.5%+12.0%
Adelaide Adrenaline @ Sydney Ice DogsMoneylineAdelaide Adrenaline+55015.4%24.6%+9.3%
Canberra Brave @ Brisbane LightningTotalOver 9.5-13357.1%61.4%+4.3%
Canberra Brave @ Brisbane LightningMoneylineBrisbane Lightning+17536.4%40.6%+4.2%
Sydney Bears @ Melbourne Mustangs2:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Melbourne Mustangs 4.75 · Sydney Bears 3.93 · total 8.68
back-to-back: Sydney Bears · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Melbourne Mustangs-40080.0%59.5%-147-20.5%
Sydney Bears+25028.6%40.5%+147+12.0%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5-13357.1%50.1%-101-6.9%
Under 8.5-10551.2%49.9%+101-1.4%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 0.6%3 goals: 1.7%4 goals: 3.8%5 goals: 6.9%6 goals: 10.3%7 goals: 12.7%8 goals: 13.9%9 goals: 13.2%10 goals: 11.7%11 goals: 9.1%12 goals: 6.3%13 goals: 4.2%14 goals: 2.6%15 goals: 1.5%16 goals: 0.7%17 goals: 0.8%8.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Canberra Brave @ Brisbane Lightning3:45 PM AEST
Projected xG · Brisbane Lightning 4.84 · Canberra Brave 5.74 · total 10.57
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Brisbane Lightning+17536.4%40.6%+147+4.2%
Canberra Brave-25071.4%59.4%-147-12.0%
Total goals · line 9.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 9.5-13357.1%61.4%-159+4.3%
Under 9.5-10551.2%38.6%+159-12.6%
Projected total goals
3 goals: 0.5%4 goals: 1.1%5 goals: 2.6%6 goals: 4.8%7 goals: 7.5%8 goals: 10.0%9 goals: 12.1%10 goals: 12.8%11 goals: 12.0%12 goals: 10.6%13 goals: 8.5%14 goals: 6.4%15 goals: 4.5%16 goals: 2.8%17 goals: 1.8%18 goals: 1.0%19 goals: 0.6%20 goals: 0.6%9.53579111315171913%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Adelaide Adrenaline @ Sydney Ice Dogs5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Sydney Ice Dogs 5.39 · Adelaide Adrenaline 3.11 · total 8.50
back-to-back: Sydney Ice Dogs & Adelaide Adrenaline · not priced in
Moneyline
TeamOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Sydney Ice Dogs-100090.9%75.3%-306-15.6%
Adelaide Adrenaline+55015.4%24.6%+306+9.3%
Total goals · line 8.5
BetOddsImpliedModelFairEdge
Over 8.5-11152.6%47.6%+110-5.0%
Under 8.5-12555.6%52.4%-110-3.1%
Projected total goals
2 goals: 0.7%3 goals: 1.9%4 goals: 4.1%5 goals: 7.6%6 goals: 10.7%7 goals: 13.3%8 goals: 14.0%9 goals: 13.4%10 goals: 11.3%11 goals: 8.7%12 goals: 5.8%13 goals: 3.7%14 goals: 2.2%15 goals: 1.2%16 goals: 0.7%17 goals: 0.5%8.524681012141614%
Green = Over wins · red = Under wins
Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.

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