AHIL Projections July 12th
AIHL Betting Dashboard
Generated 2026-07-11 13:11 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 Poisson sims/game
Top value bets · edge > +3%
| Game | Market | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Mustangs @ Adelaide Adrenaline | Total | Under 9.5 | -105 | 51.2% | 67.2% | +16.0% |
| Melbourne Mustangs @ Adelaide Adrenaline | Moneyline | Adelaide Adrenaline | +600 | 14.3% | 24.6% | +10.3% |
| Brisbane Lightning @ Newcastle Northstars | Moneyline | Brisbane Lightning | +500 | 16.7% | 22.2% | +5.5% |
Brisbane Lightning @ Newcastle Northstars3:30 PM AEST
Projected xG · Newcastle Northstars 6.87 · Brisbane Lightning 4.31 · total 11.19
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Northstars | -909 | 90.1% | 77.8% | -350 | -12.3% |
| Brisbane Lightning | +500 | 16.7% | 22.2% | +350 | +5.5% |
Total goals · line 10.5
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 10.5 | -143 | 58.9% | 56.2% | -128 | -2.7% |
| Under 10.5 | +110 | 47.6% | 43.8% | +128 | -3.8% |
Central Coast Rhinos @ Sydney Bears5:00 PM AEST
Projected xG · Sydney Bears 5.81 · Central Coast Rhinos 3.50 · total 9.31
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Bears | -455 | 82.0% | 77.1% | -337 | -4.9% |
| Central Coast Rhinos | +275 | 26.7% | 22.9% | +337 | -3.8% |
Total goals · line 9.5
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | -118 | 54.1% | 45.4% | +120 | -8.7% |
| Under 9.5 | -118 | 54.1% | 54.6% | -120 | +0.5% |
Melbourne Mustangs @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:15 PM ACST
Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 3.17 · Melbourne Mustangs 5.16 · total 8.34
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Adrenaline | +600 | 14.3% | 24.6% | +307 | +10.3% |
| Melbourne Mustangs | -1250 | 92.6% | 75.4% | -307 | -17.2% |
Total goals · line 9.5
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | -133 | 57.1% | 32.8% | +205 | -24.3% |
| Under 9.5 | -105 | 51.2% | 67.2% | -205 | +16.0% |
Melbourne Ice @ Perth Thunder4:00 PM AWST
Projected xG · Perth Thunder 5.25 · Melbourne Ice 4.00 · total 9.25
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perth Thunder | -238 | 70.4% | 65.9% | -193 | -4.5% |
| Melbourne Ice | +170 | 37.0% | 34.1% | +193 | -3.0% |
Total goals · line 9.5
| Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | -118 | 54.1% | 44.5% | +125 | -9.6% |
| Under 9.5 | -118 | 54.1% | 55.5% | -125 | +1.4% |
Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.