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# AIHL Projections July 26th
- URL: https://thepuckline.com/aihl-projections-july-26th/
- Published: 2026-07-25T11:55:54.000Z
- Updated: 2026-07-25T11:55:53.000Z
- Author: Josh Boulton

# AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-07-25 12:54 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

## Top value bets · edge > +3%

| Game                               | Market    | Bet                | Odds  | Implied | Model | Edge   |
| ---------------------------------- | --------- | ------------------ | ----- | ------- | ----- | ------ |
| Brisbane Lightning @ Melbourne Ice | Total     | Over 9.5           | \-118 | 54.1%   | 76.4% | +22.2% |
| Brisbane Lightning @ Melbourne Ice | Moneyline | Brisbane Lightning | +575  | 14.8%   | 25.6% | +10.8% |
| Sydney Ice Dogs @ Canberra Brave   | Moneyline | Sydney Ice Dogs    | +175  | 36.4%   | 42.5% | +6.1%  |

Sydney Ice Dogs @ Canberra Brave14:00

Projected xG · Canberra Brave 4.90 · Sydney Ice Dogs 4.23 · total 9.14  
back-to-back: Sydney Ice Dogs · not priced in

Moneyline

| Team            | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Canberra Brave  | \-250 | 71.4%   | 57.5% | \-135 | \-13.9% |
| Sydney Ice Dogs | +175  | 36.4%   | 42.5% | +135  | +6.1%   |

Total goals · line 8.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 8.5  | \-118 | 54.1%   | 56.3% | \-129 | +2.2%   |
| Under 8.5 | \-118 | 54.1%   | 43.7% | +129  | \-10.5% |

Projected total goals

3 goals: 1.6%4 goals: 2.9%5 goals: 5.5%6 goals: 8.8%7 goals: 11.6%8 goals: 13.2%9 goals: 13.4%10 goals: 12.3%11 goals: 10.2%12 goals: 7.6%13 goals: 5.2%14 goals: 3.4%15 goals: 2.1%16 goals: 1.1%17 goals: 0.6%18 goals: 0.6%8.535791113151713%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Brisbane Lightning @ Melbourne Ice2:00 PM AEST

Projected xG · Melbourne Ice 7.29 · Brisbane Lightning 4.71 · total 12.00  
back-to-back: Brisbane Lightning · not priced in

Moneyline

| Team               | Odds   | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ------------------ | ------ | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Melbourne Ice      | \-1111 | 91.7%   | 74.4% | \-290 | \-17.4% |
| Brisbane Lightning | +575   | 14.8%   | 25.6% | +290  | +10.8%  |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 9.5  | \-118 | 54.1%   | 76.4% | \-323 | +22.2%  |
| Under 9.5 | \-118 | 54.1%   | 23.6% | +323  | \-30.5% |

Projected total goals

4 goals: 0.6%5 goals: 1.1%6 goals: 2.4%7 goals: 4.2%8 goals: 6.5%9 goals: 8.9%10 goals: 10.6%11 goals: 11.8%12 goals: 11.8%13 goals: 10.7%14 goals: 9.1%15 goals: 7.3%16 goals: 5.5%17 goals: 3.6%18 goals: 2.5%19 goals: 1.5%20 goals: 0.9%21 goals: 0.5%22 goals: 0.5%9.54681012141618202212%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Sydney Bears @ Central Coast Rhinos3:45 PM AEST

Projected xG · Central Coast Rhinos 3.92 · Sydney Bears 5.01 · total 8.93  
back-to-back: Sydney Bears · not priced in

Moneyline

| Team                 | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Central Coast Rhinos | +150  | 40.0%   | 37.2% | +169  | \-2.8% |
| Sydney Bears         | \-200 | 66.7%   | 62.8% | \-169 | \-3.9% |

Total goals · line 8.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Over 8.5  | \-125 | 55.6%   | 53.6% | \-116 | \-1.9% |
| Under 8.5 | \-111 | 52.6%   | 46.4% | +116  | \-6.2% |

Projected total goals

3 goals: 1.8%4 goals: 3.3%5 goals: 6.0%6 goals: 9.5%7 goals: 12.2%8 goals: 13.6%9 goals: 13.5%10 goals: 12.3%11 goals: 9.8%12 goals: 7.0%13 goals: 4.7%14 goals: 2.9%15 goals: 1.7%16 goals: 0.9%17 goals: 0.9%8.535791113