> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://thepuckline.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # AIHL projections July 25th - URL: https://thepuckline.com/aihl-projections-july-25th/ - Published: 2026-07-21T20:59:54.000Z - Updated: 2026-07-21T20:59:54.000Z - Author: Josh Boulton # AIHL Betting Dashboard Generated 2026-07-21 16:18 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game ## Top value bets · edge > +3% | Game | Market | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | | --------------------------------------- | --------- | ------------------ | ----- | ------- | ----- | ------ | | Brisbane Lightning @ Melbourne Mustangs | Moneyline | Brisbane Lightning | +800 | 11.1% | 25.2% | +14.1% | | Sydney Ice Dogs @ Sydney Bears | Moneyline | Sydney Ice Dogs | +100 | 50.0% | 59.0% | +9.1% | | Sydney Ice Dogs @ Sydney Bears | Total | Under 9.5 | \-139 | 58.2% | 63.2% | +5.1% | | Newcastle Northstars @ Perth Thunder | Moneyline | Perth Thunder | \-111 | 52.6% | 55.7% | +3.0% | Brisbane Lightning @ Melbourne Mustangs5:00 PM AEST Projected xG · Melbourne Mustangs 7.08 · Brisbane Lightning 4.48 · total 11.57 Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | ------------------ | ------ | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Melbourne Mustangs | \-2500 | 96.2% | 74.8% | \-297 | \-21.4% | | Brisbane Lightning | +800 | 11.1% | 25.2% | +297 | +14.1% | Total goals · line 11.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | ---------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ | | Over 11.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 48.8% | +105 | \-5.3% | | Under 11.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 51.2% | \-105 | \-3.0% | Projected total goals 4 goals: 0.8%5 goals: 1.5%6 goals: 3.0%7 goals: 5.0%8 goals: 7.6%9 goals: 9.8%10 goals: 11.5%11 goals: 11.9%12 goals: 11.6%13 goals: 10.3%14 goals: 8.6%15 goals: 6.3%16 goals: 4.6%17 goals: 3.1%18 goals: 2.0%19 goals: 1.1%20 goals: 0.7%21 goals: 0.7%11.546810121416182012% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Sydney Ice Dogs @ Sydney Bears5:00 PM AEST Projected xG · Sydney Bears 3.95 · Sydney Ice Dogs 4.73 · total 8.68 Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Sydney Bears | \-139 | 58.2% | 41.0% | +144 | \-17.2% | | Sydney Ice Dogs | +100 | 50.0% | 59.0% | \-144 | +9.1% | Total goals · line 9.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Over 9.5 | +100 | 50.0% | 36.8% | +172 | \-13.2% | | Under 9.5 | \-139 | 58.2% | 63.2% | \-172 | +5.1% | Projected total goals 2 goals: 0.6%3 goals: 1.6%4 goals: 3.8%5 goals: 6.9%6 goals: 10.1%7 goals: 12.9%8 goals: 14.0%9 goals: 13.3%10 goals: 11.6%11 goals: 9.0%12 goals: 6.4%13 goals: 4.2%14 goals: 2.5%15 goals: 1.5%16 goals: 0.8%17 goals: 0.7%9.524681012141614% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Newcastle Northstars @ Perth Thunder4:00 PM AWST Projected xG · Perth Thunder 4.58 · Newcastle Northstars 4.10 · total 8.68 Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Perth Thunder | \-111 | 52.6% | 55.7% | \-126 | +3.0% | | Newcastle Northstars | \-125 | 55.6% | 44.3% | +126 | \-11.2% | Total goals · line 8.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ | | Over 8.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 50.1% | \-100 | \-4.0% | | Under 8.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 49.9% | +100 | \-4.2% | Projected total goals 2 goals: 0.6%3 goals: 1.7%4 goals: 3.8%5 goals: 6.9%6 goals: 10.3%7 goals: 12.8%8 goals: 13.9%9 goals: 13.5%10 goals: 11.7%11 goals: 9.2%12 goals: 6.3%13 goals: 4.1%14 goals: 2.5%15 goals: 1.4%16 goals: 0.8%17 goals: 0.7%8.524681012141614% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.