> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://thepuckline.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# AIHL Projections July 17th/18th
- URL: https://thepuckline.com/aihl-projections-july-17th-18th/
- Published: 2026-07-13T14:39:47.000Z
- Updated: 2026-07-13T14:39:47.000Z
- Author: Josh Boulton

# AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-07-13 15:35 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 Poisson sims/game

## Top value bets · edge > +3%

| Game                                       | Market    | Bet           | Odds  | Implied | Model | Edge   |
| ------------------------------------------ | --------- | ------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ------ |
| Adelaide Adrenaline @ Newcastle Northstars | Total     | Under 9.5     | \-105 | 51.2%   | 62.4% | +11.2% |
| Melbourne Ice @ Melbourne Mustangs         | Moneyline | Melbourne Ice | +110  | 47.6%   | 58.7% | +11.1% |
| Melbourne Ice @ Melbourne Mustangs         | Total     | Under 10.5    | \-118 | 54.1%   | 58.2% | +4.0%  |
| Canberra Brave @ Brisbane Lightning        | Total     | Over 9.5      | \-133 | 57.1%   | 60.9% | +3.8%  |

Melbourne Ice @ Melbourne Mustangs7:30 PM AEST

Projected xG · Melbourne Mustangs 4.65 · Melbourne Ice 5.37 · total 10.02

Moneyline

| Team               | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ------------------ | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Melbourne Mustangs | \-143 | 58.9%   | 41.3% | +142  | \-17.6% |
| Melbourne Ice      | +110  | 47.6%   | 58.7% | \-142 | +11.1%  |

Total goals · line 10.5

| Bet        | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ---------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 10.5  | \-118 | 54.1%   | 41.8% | +139  | \-12.3% |
| Under 10.5 | \-118 | 54.1%   | 58.2% | \-139 | +4.0%   |

Adelaide Adrenaline @ Newcastle Northstars5:00 PM AEST

Projected xG · Newcastle Northstars 6.14 · Adelaide Adrenaline 2.57 · total 8.72

Moneyline

| Team                 | Odds   | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| -------------------- | ------ | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Newcastle Northstars | \-3333 | 97.1%   | 88.7% | \-787 | \-8.4% |
| Adelaide Adrenaline  | +900   | 10.0%   | 11.3% | +787  | +1.3%  |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 9.5  | \-133 | 57.1%   | 37.6% | +166  | \-19.5% |
| Under 9.5 | \-105 | 51.2%   | 62.4% | \-166 | +11.2%  |

Central Coast Rhinos @ Sydney Ice Dogs5:00 PM AEST

Projected xG · Sydney Ice Dogs 6.34 · Central Coast Rhinos 4.09 · total 10.43

Moneyline

| Team                 | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Sydney Ice Dogs      | \-263 | 72.5%   | 75.3% | \-305 | +2.9%   |
| Central Coast Rhinos | +185  | 35.1%   | 24.7% | +305  | \-10.4% |

Total goals · line 10.5

| Bet        | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| ---------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Over 10.5  | \-118 | 54.1%   | 47.0% | +113  | \-7.1% |
| Under 10.5 | \-118 | 54.1%   | 53.0% | \-113 | \-1.2% |

Canberra Brave @ Brisbane Lightning3:45 PM AEST

Projected xG · Brisbane Lightning 4.82 · Canberra Brave 5.73 · total 10.55

Moneyline

| Team               | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ------------------ | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Brisbane Lightning | +175  | 36.4%   | 39.0% | +156  | +2.7%   |
| Canberra Brave     | \-250 | 71.4%   | 61.0% | \-156 | \-10.5% |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 9.5  | \-133 | 57.1%   | 60.9% | \-156 | +3.8%   |
| Under 9.5 | \-105 | 51.2%   | 39.1% | +156  | \-12.1% |

Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.