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# AIHL Projections July 11th
- URL: https://thepuckline.com/aihl-projections-july-11th/
- Published: 2026-07-07T10:16:15.000Z
- Updated: 2026-07-07T10:29:53.000Z
- Author: Josh Boulton

# AIHL Games

Generated 2026-07-07 11:11 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 Poisson sims/game

## Top value bets · edge > +3%

| Game                                     | Market    | Bet                 | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge   |
| ---------------------------------------- | --------- | ------------------- | ---- | ------- | ----- | ------ |
| Melbourne Mustangs @ Adelaide Adrenaline | Total     | Under 10.5          | +100 | 50.0%   | 77.7% | +27.7% |
| Sydney Bears @ Newcastle Northstars      | Total     | Under 9.5           | +120 | 45.5%   | 66.5% | +21.1% |
| Melbourne Ice @ Perth Thunder            | Total     | Under 10.5          | +120 | 45.5%   | 65.9% | +20.4% |
| Sydney Bears @ Newcastle Northstars      | Moneyline | Sydney Bears        | +220 | 31.2%   | 39.7% | +8.5%  |
| Brisbane Lightning @ Sydney Ice Dogs     | Moneyline | Brisbane Lightning  | +230 | 30.3%   | 38.4% | +8.1%  |
| Melbourne Mustangs @ Adelaide Adrenaline | Moneyline | Adelaide Adrenaline | +325 | 23.5%   | 27.9% | +4.3%  |
| Brisbane Lightning @ Sydney Ice Dogs     | Total     | Over 10.5           | +100 | 50.0%   | 53.9% | +3.9%  |

Sydney Bears @ Newcastle Northstars5:00 PM AEST

Projected xG · Newcastle Northstars 4.59 · Sydney Bears 3.83 · total 8.41

Moneyline

| Team                 | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Newcastle Northstars | \-333 | 76.9%   | 60.3% | \-152 | \-16.6% |
| Sydney Bears         | +220  | 31.2%   | 39.7% | +152  | +8.5%   |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 9.5  | \-167 | 62.5%   | 33.5% | +199  | \-29.1% |
| Under 9.5 | +120  | 45.5%   | 66.5% | \-199 | +21.1%  |

Brisbane Lightning @ Sydney Ice Dogs5:00 PM AEST

Projected xG · Sydney Ice Dogs 6.00 · Brisbane Lightning 4.99 · total 10.98

Moneyline

| Team               | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ------------------ | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Sydney Ice Dogs    | \-357 | 78.1%   | 61.6% | \-160 | \-16.5% |
| Brisbane Lightning | +230  | 30.3%   | 38.4% | +160  | +8.1%   |

Total goals · line 10.5

| Bet        | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ---------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 10.5  | +100  | 50.0%   | 53.9% | \-117 | +3.9%   |
| Under 10.5 | \-139 | 58.2%   | 46.1% | +117  | \-12.1% |

Melbourne Mustangs @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:45 PM ACST

Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 3.33 · Melbourne Mustangs 5.04 · total 8.37

Moneyline

| Team                | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Adelaide Adrenaline | +325  | 23.5%   | 27.9% | +259  | +4.3%   |
| Melbourne Mustangs  | \-556 | 84.8%   | 72.2% | \-259 | \-12.6% |

Total goals · line 10.5

| Bet        | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ---------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 10.5  | \-139 | 58.2%   | 22.3% | +349  | \-35.9% |
| Under 10.5 | +100  | 50.0%   | 77.7% | \-349 | +27.7%  |

Melbourne Ice @ Perth Thunder4:00 PM AWST

Projected xG · Perth Thunder 5.29 · Melbourne Ice 4.10 · total 9.39

Moneyline

| Team          | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Perth Thunder | \-167 | 62.5%   | 64.9% | \-185 | +2.3%   |
| Melbourne Ice | +120  | 45.5%   | 35.1% | +185  | \-10.3% |

Total goals · line 10.5

| Bet        | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ---------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 10.5  | \-167 | 62.5%   | 34.1% | +193  | \-28.4% |
| Under 10.5 | +120  | 45.5%   | 65.9% | \-193 | +20.4%  |

Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.