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# AIHL Projections Aug 8th
- URL: https://thepuckline.com/aihl-projections-aug-8th/
- Published: 2026-08-02T12:04:13.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-02T12:04:13.000Z
- Author: Josh Boulton

# AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-08-02 13:02 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

## Top value bets · edge > +3%

| Game                                     | Market    | Bet           | Odds  | Implied | Model | Edge  |
| ---------------------------------------- | --------- | ------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- |
| Brisbane Lightning @ Adelaide Adrenaline | Total     | Under 10.5    | \-118 | 54.1%   | 62.7% | +8.6% |
| Melbourne Mustangs @ Perth Thunder       | Total     | Under 9.5     | \-118 | 54.1%   | 61.0% | +6.8% |
| Melbourne Mustangs @ Perth Thunder       | Moneyline | Perth Thunder | \-133 | 57.1%   | 60.9% | +3.9% |

Melbourne Ice @ Canberra Brave17:00

Projected xG · Canberra Brave 4.97 · Melbourne Ice 4.58 · total 9.55

Moneyline

| Team           | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| -------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Canberra Brave | \-172 | 63.2%   | 54.3% | \-119 | \-8.9% |
| Melbourne Ice  | +125  | 44.4%   | 45.7% | +119  | +1.2%  |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Over 9.5  | \-105 | 51.2%   | 48.3% | +107  | \-2.9% |
| Under 9.5 | \-133 | 57.1%   | 51.7% | \-107 | \-5.4% |

Projected total goals

3 goals: 1.2%4 goals: 2.3%5 goals: 4.5%6 goals: 7.5%7 goals: 10.3%8 goals: 12.6%9 goals: 13.2%10 goals: 12.5%11 goals: 11.0%12 goals: 8.7%13 goals: 6.2%14 goals: 4.2%15 goals: 2.6%16 goals: 1.5%17 goals: 0.8%18 goals: 0.9%9.535791113151713%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Brisbane Lightning @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:45 PM ACST

Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 4.48 · Brisbane Lightning 5.19 · total 9.67

Moneyline

| Team                | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Adelaide Adrenaline | \-111 | 52.6%   | 42.2% | +137  | \-10.4% |
| Brisbane Lightning  | \-125 | 55.6%   | 57.8% | \-137 | +2.2%   |

Total goals · line 10.5

| Bet        | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ---------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 10.5  | \-118 | 54.1%   | 37.3% | +168  | \-16.9% |
| Under 10.5 | \-118 | 54.1%   | 62.7% | \-168 | +8.6%   |

Projected total goals

3 goals: 1.1%4 goals: 2.1%5 goals: 4.2%6 goals: 7.1%7 goals: 9.9%8 goals: 12.3%9 goals: 13.3%10 goals: 12.7%11 goals: 11.1%12 goals: 8.8%13 goals: 6.5%14 goals: 4.5%15 goals: 2.8%16 goals: 1.7%17 goals: 0.9%18 goals: 1.0%10.535791113151713%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Melbourne Mustangs @ Perth Thunder4:00 PM AWST

Projected xG · Perth Thunder 4.90 · Melbourne Mustangs 3.95 · total 8.85

Moneyline

| Team               | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ------------------ | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Perth Thunder      | \-133 | 57.1%   | 60.9% | \-156 | +3.9%   |
| Melbourne Mustangs | \-105 | 51.2%   | 39.1% | +156  | \-12.2% |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 9.5  | \-118 | 54.1%   | 39.0% | +156  | \-15.1% |
| Under 9.5 | \-118 | 54.1%   | 61.0% | \-156 | +6.8%   |

Projected total goals

2 goals: 0.5%3 goals: 1.5%4 goals: 3.4%5 goals: 6.4%6 goals: 9.6%7 goals: 12.3%8 goals: 13.6%9 goals: 13.6%10 goals: 12.1%11 goals: 9.5%12 goals: 6.8%13 goals: 4.5%14 goals: 2.8%15 goals: 1.6%16 goals: 0.9%17 goals: 0.8%9.524681012141614%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.