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# AIHL Projections Aug 2nd
- URL: https://thepuckline.com/aihl-projections-aug-2nd/
- Published: 2026-08-01T10:32:22.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-01T10:32:22.000Z
- Author: Josh Boulton

# AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-08-01 11:28 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

## Top value bets · edge > +3%

| Game                                  | Market    | Bet           | Odds  | Implied | Model | Edge   |
| ------------------------------------- | --------- | ------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ------ |
| Perth Thunder @ Newcastle Northstars  | Moneyline | Perth Thunder | +195  | 33.9%   | 50.2% | +16.3% |
| Perth Thunder @ Newcastle Northstars  | Total     | Under 9.5     | \-118 | 54.1%   | 62.8% | +8.6%  |
| Sydney Ice Dogs @ Adelaide Adrenaline | Total     | Under 8.5     | +100  | 50.0%   | 56.7% | +6.7%  |
| Sydney Bears @ Melbourne Ice          | Total     | Under 9.5     | +100  | 50.0%   | 55.2% | +5.2%  |
| Sydney Bears @ Melbourne Ice          | Moneyline | Sydney Bears  | +230  | 30.3%   | 34.1% | +3.8%  |

Central Coast Rhinos @ Canberra Brave14:00

Projected xG · Canberra Brave 6.64 · Central Coast Rhinos 3.34 · total 9.98  
back-to-back: Canberra Brave & Central Coast Rhinos · not priced in

Moneyline

| Team                 | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Canberra Brave       | \-833 | 89.3%   | 82.2% | \-460 | \-7.1% |
| Central Coast Rhinos | +450  | 18.2%   | 17.9% | +460  | \-0.3% |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Over 9.5  | \-118 | 54.1%   | 54.0% | \-117 | \-0.2% |
| Under 9.5 | \-118 | 54.1%   | 46.0% | +117  | \-8.1% |

Projected total goals

3 goals: 0.8%4 goals: 1.8%5 goals: 3.6%6 goals: 6.3%7 goals: 9.3%8 goals: 11.5%9 goals: 12.7%10 goals: 12.8%11 goals: 11.6%12 goals: 9.5%13 goals: 7.2%14 goals: 5.0%15 goals: 3.4%16 goals: 2.1%17 goals: 1.2%18 goals: 0.6%19 goals: 0.7%9.53579111315171913%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Sydney Bears @ Melbourne Ice2:00 PM AEST

Projected xG · Melbourne Ice 5.35 · Sydney Bears 3.93 · total 9.28  
back-to-back: Melbourne Ice & Sydney Bears · not priced in

Moneyline

| Team          | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Melbourne Ice | \-357 | 78.1%   | 65.9% | \-193 | \-12.2% |
| Sydney Bears  | +230  | 30.3%   | 34.1% | +193  | +3.8%   |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 9.5  | \-139 | 58.2%   | 44.8% | +123  | \-13.3% |
| Under 9.5 | +100  | 50.0%   | 55.2% | \-123 | +5.2%   |

Projected total goals

3 goals: 1.4%4 goals: 2.6%5 goals: 5.3%6 goals: 8.2%7 goals: 11.0%8 goals: 13.2%9 goals: 13.4%10 goals: 12.4%11 goals: 10.4%12 goals: 8.0%13 goals: 5.6%14 goals: 3.7%15 goals: 2.2%16 goals: 1.3%17 goals: 0.7%18 goals: 0.6%9.535791113151713%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Perth Thunder @ Newcastle Northstars4:00 PM AEST

Projected xG · Newcastle Northstars 4.36 · Perth Thunder 4.37 · total 8.73  
back-to-back: Perth Thunder · not priced in

Moneyline

| Team                 | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Newcastle Northstars | \-286 | 74.1%   | 49.8% | +101  | \-24.3% |
| Perth Thunder        | +195  | 33.9%   | 50.2% | \-101 | +16.3%  |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 9.5  | \-118 | 54.1%   | 37.2% | +168  | \-16.9% |
| Under 9.5 | \-118 | 54.1%   | 62.8% | \-168 | +8.6%   |

Projected total goals

2 goals: 0.6%3 goals: 1.6%4 goals: 3.6%5 goals: 6.7%6 goals: 10.1%7 goals: 12.7%8 goals: 13.9%9 goals: 13.4%10 goals: 11.9%11 goals: 9.3%12 goals: 6.4%13 goals: 4.2%14 goals: 2.5%15 goals: 1.5%16 goals: 0.8%17 goals: 0.7%9.524681012141614%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Sydney Ice Dogs @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:15 PM ACST

Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 3.03 · Sydney Ice Dogs 5.16 · total 8.19  
back-to-back: Sydney Ice Dogs · not priced in

Moneyline

| Team                | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| ------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Adelaide Adrenaline | +250  | 28.6%   | 25.6% | +291  | \-3.0% |
| Sydney Ice Dogs     | \-400 | 80.0%   | 74.4% | \-291 | \-5.6% |

Total goals · line 8.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 8.5  | \-139 | 58.2%   | 43.3% | +131  | \-14.9% |
| Under 8.5 | +100  | 50.0%   | 56.7% | \-131 | +6.7%   |

Projected total goals

2 goals: 1.0%3 goals: 2.3%4 goals: 5.0%5 goals: 8.3%6 goals: 11.9%7 goals: 13.9%8 goals: 14.4%9 goals: 12.8%10 goals: 10.4%11 goals: 7.7%12 goals: 5.3%13 goals: 3.2%14 goals: 1.8%15 goals: 1.0%16 goals: 0.9%8.524681012141614%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.