> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://thepuckline.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # AIHL Projections Aug 1st - URL: https://thepuckline.com/aihl-projections-aug-1st/ - Published: 2026-07-27T11:22:33.000Z - Updated: 2026-07-27T11:22:33.000Z - Author: Josh Boulton # AIHL Betting Dashboard Generated 2026-07-27 12:20 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game ## Top value bets · edge > +3% | Game | Market | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | | ------------------------------------- | --------- | --------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ------ | | Canberra Brave @ Central Coast Rhinos | Total | Over 8.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 64.7% | +10.5% | | Sydney Ice Dogs @ Melbourne Ice | Moneyline | Sydney Ice Dogs | +170 | 37.0% | 44.4% | +7.4% | | Canberra Brave @ Central Coast Rhinos | Moneyline | Canberra Brave | \-250 | 71.4% | 77.2% | +5.8% | | Perth Thunder @ Sydney Bears | Moneyline | Sydney Bears | +230 | 30.3% | 35.3% | +5.0% | Canberra Brave @ Central Coast Rhinos3:45 PM AEST Projected xG · Central Coast Rhinos 3.57 · Canberra Brave 6.24 · total 9.81 Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Central Coast Rhinos | +175 | 36.4% | 22.8% | +339 | \-13.6% | | Canberra Brave | \-250 | 71.4% | 77.2% | \-339 | +5.8% | Total goals · line 8.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Over 8.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 64.7% | \-183 | +10.5% | | Under 8.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 35.3% | +183 | \-18.8% | Projected total goals 3 goals: 1.0%4 goals: 2.0%5 goals: 4.0%6 goals: 6.7%7 goals: 9.7%8 goals: 12.0%9 goals: 12.9%10 goals: 12.7%11 goals: 11.2%12 goals: 9.3%13 goals: 6.9%14 goals: 4.7%15 goals: 3.0%16 goals: 1.9%17 goals: 1.0%18 goals: 0.6%19 goals: 0.6%8.53579111315171913% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Sydney Ice Dogs @ Melbourne Ice5:00 PM AEST Projected xG · Melbourne Ice 5.24 · Sydney Ice Dogs 4.73 · total 9.98 Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Melbourne Ice | \-238 | 70.4% | 55.6% | \-125 | \-14.8% | | Sydney Ice Dogs | +170 | 37.0% | 44.4% | +125 | +7.4% | Total goals · line 9.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ | | Over 9.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 54.1% | \-118 | \-0.1% | | Under 9.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 45.9% | +118 | \-8.2% | Projected total goals 3 goals: 0.8%4 goals: 1.7%5 goals: 3.6%6 goals: 6.2%7 goals: 9.1%8 goals: 11.5%9 goals: 12.9%10 goals: 12.9%11 goals: 11.5%12 goals: 9.6%13 goals: 7.2%14 goals: 5.1%15 goals: 3.3%16 goals: 2.0%17 goals: 1.2%18 goals: 0.6%19 goals: 0.6%9.53579111315171913% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Perth Thunder @ Sydney Bears5:00 PM AEST Projected xG · Sydney Bears 3.46 · Perth Thunder 4.67 · total 8.14 Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | ------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Sydney Bears | +230 | 30.3% | 35.3% | +183 | +5.0% | | Perth Thunder | \-357 | 78.1% | 64.7% | \-183 | \-13.4% | Total goals · line 8.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ | | Over 8.5 | +100 | 50.0% | 42.5% | +135 | \-7.5% | | Under 8.5 | \-139 | 58.2% | 57.5% | \-135 | \-0.7% | Projected total goals 2 goals: 1.0%3 goals: 2.3%4 goals: 5.1%5 goals: 8.8%6 goals: 12.1%7 goals: 14.0%8 goals: 14.2%9 goals: 13.2%10 goals: 10.5%11 goals: 7.5%12 goals: 4.9%13 goals: 3.0%14 goals: 1.7%15 goals: 0.9%16 goals: 0.8%8.524681012141614% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.