> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://thepuckline.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # AIHL projections 9th Aug - URL: https://thepuckline.com/aihl-projections-8th-aug/ - Published: 2026-08-08T14:35:31.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-21T11:44:47.000Z - Author: Josh Boulton # AIHL Betting Dashboard Generated 2026-08-08 15:33 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game ## Top value bets · edge > +3% | Game | Market | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | | ---------------------------------------- | --------- | ------------------ | ----- | ------- | ----- | ------ | | Brisbane Lightning @ Adelaide Adrenaline | Total | Under 10.5 | +115 | 46.5% | 60.0% | +13.4% | | Melbourne Mustangs @ Perth Thunder | Moneyline | Perth Thunder | +110 | 47.6% | 58.8% | +11.2% | | Melbourne Ice @ Canberra Brave | Moneyline | Melbourne Ice | +170 | 37.0% | 43.5% | +6.4% | | Sydney Ice Dogs @ Newcastle Northstars | Moneyline | Sydney Ice Dogs | +250 | 28.6% | 33.8% | +5.2% | | Brisbane Lightning @ Adelaide Adrenaline | Moneyline | Brisbane Lightning | \-118 | 54.1% | 58.2% | +4.1% | Melbourne Ice @ Canberra Brave13:00 Projected xG · Canberra Brave 5.02 · Melbourne Ice 4.42 · total 9.44 back-to-back: Canberra Brave & Melbourne Ice · not priced in Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | -------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Canberra Brave | \-238 | 70.4% | 56.5% | \-130 | \-13.9% | | Melbourne Ice | +170 | 37.0% | 43.5% | +130 | +6.4% | Total goals · line 8.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Over 8.5 | \-141 | 58.5% | 60.2% | \-151 | +1.7% | | Under 8.5 | +100 | 50.0% | 39.8% | +151 | \-10.2% | Projected total goals 3 goals: 1.3%4 goals: 2.4%5 goals: 4.8%6 goals: 7.8%7 goals: 10.7%8 goals: 12.8%9 goals: 13.4%10 goals: 12.5%11 goals: 10.7%12 goals: 8.4%13 goals: 5.9%14 goals: 4.0%15 goals: 2.5%16 goals: 1.4%17 goals: 0.8%18 goals: 0.8%8.535791113151713% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Sydney Ice Dogs @ Newcastle Northstars4:00 PM AEST Projected xG · Newcastle Northstars 5.34 · Sydney Ice Dogs 3.89 · total 9.23 back-to-back: Newcastle Northstars & Sydney Ice Dogs · not priced in Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Newcastle Northstars | \-400 | 80.0% | 66.2% | \-196 | \-13.8% | | Sydney Ice Dogs | +250 | 28.6% | 33.8% | +196 | +5.2% | Total goals · line 8.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ | | Over 8.5 | \-167 | 62.5% | 57.7% | \-136 | \-4.9% | | Under 8.5 | +120 | 45.5% | 42.3% | +136 | \-3.1% | Projected total goals 3 goals: 1.5%4 goals: 2.7%5 goals: 5.3%6 goals: 8.4%7 goals: 11.2%8 goals: 13.2%9 goals: 13.5%10 goals: 12.3%11 goals: 10.3%12 goals: 7.9%13 goals: 5.5%14 goals: 3.6%15 goals: 2.1%16 goals: 1.2%17 goals: 0.7%18 goals: 0.6%8.535791113151713% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Central Coast Rhinos @ Sydney Bears5:00 PM AEST Projected xG · Sydney Bears 5.65 · Central Coast Rhinos 3.62 · total 9.27 Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ | | Sydney Bears | \-400 | 80.0% | 72.0% | \-257 | \-8.0% | | Central Coast Rhinos | +250 | 28.6% | 28.0% | +257 | \-0.6% | Total goals · line 9.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ | | Over 9.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 44.7% | +124 | \-9.5% | | Under 9.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 55.3% | \-124 | +1.2% | Projected total goals 3 goals: 1.4%4 goals: 2.6%5 goals: 5.2%6 goals: 8.4%7 goals: 11.2%8 goals: 13.0%9 goals: 13.5%10 goals: 12.6%11 goals: 10.6%12 goals: 8.0%13 goals: 5.4%14 goals: 3.5%15 goals: 2.1%16 goals: 1.2%17 goals: 0.6%18 goals: 0.6%9.535791113151713% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Brisbane Lightning @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:45 PM ACST Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 4.57 · Brisbane Lightning 5.32 · total 9.89 back-to-back: Adelaide Adrenaline & Brisbane Lightning · not priced in Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | ------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Adelaide Adrenaline | \-118 | 54.1% | 41.8% | +139 | \-12.3% | | Brisbane Lightning | \-118 | 54.1% | 58.2% | \-139 | +4.1% | Total goals · line 10.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | ---------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Over 10.5 | \-154 | 60.6% | 40.0% | +150 | \-20.6% | | Under 10.5 | +115 | 46.5% | 60.0% | \-150 | +13.4% | Projected total goals 3 goals: 0.9%4 goals: 1.8%5 goals: 3.8%6 goals: 6.3%7 goals: 9.4%8 goals: 11.9%9 goals: 13.0%10 goals: 12.9%11 goals: 11.3%12 goals: 9.4%13 goals: 7.2%14 goals: 4.9%15 goals: 3.2%16 goals: 1.9%17 goals: 1.0%18 goals: 0.6%19 goals: 0.6%10.53579111315171913% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Melbourne Mustangs @ Perth Thunder4:00 PM AWST Projected xG · Perth Thunder 4.76 · Melbourne Mustangs 3.99 · total 8.76 back-to-back: Perth Thunder & Melbourne Mustangs · not priced in Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | ------------------ | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Perth Thunder | +110 | 47.6% | 58.8% | \-143 | +11.2% | | Melbourne Mustangs | \-143 | 58.9% | 41.2% | +143 | \-17.7% | Total goals · line 8.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ | | Over 8.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 51.3% | \-106 | \-2.8% | | Under 8.5 | \-118 | 54.1% | 48.7% | +106 | \-5.5% | Projected total goals 2 goals: 0.6%3 goals: 1.5%4 goals: 3.5%5 goals: 6.6%6 goals: 9.9%7 goals: 12.7%8 goals: 13.9%9 goals: 13.3%10 goals: 11.7%11 goals: 9.1%12 goals: 6.7%13 goals: 4.4%14 goals: 2.7%15 goals: 1.6%16 goals: 0.8%17 goals: 0.8%8.524681012141614% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.