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# AIHL projections 23rd Aug
- URL: https://thepuckline.com/aihl-projections-23rd-aug/
- Published: 2026-08-22T12:23:12.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-22T12:23:12.000Z
- Author: Josh Boulton

# AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-08-22 13:18 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

## Top value bets · edge > +3%

| Game                                | Market    | Bet                  | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge   |
| ----------------------------------- | --------- | -------------------- | ---- | ------- | ----- | ------ |
| Newcastle Northstars @ Sydney Bears | Moneyline | Newcastle Northstars | +155 | 39.2%   | 58.9% | +19.7% |

Canberra Brave @ Melbourne Mustangs2:00 PM AEST

Projected xG · Melbourne Mustangs 4.44 · Canberra Brave 4.36 · total 8.80  
back-to-back: Canberra Brave · not priced in

Moneyline

| Team               | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| ------------------ | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Melbourne Mustangs | \-125 | 55.6%   | 50.9% | \-104 | \-4.7% |
| Canberra Brave     | \-111 | 52.6%   | 49.1% | +104  | \-3.5% |

Total goals · line 7.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 7.5  | \-167 | 62.5%   | 65.5% | \-190 | +3.0%   |
| Under 7.5 | +120  | 45.5%   | 34.5% | +190  | \-11.0% |

Projected total goals

2 goals: 0.6%3 goals: 1.5%4 goals: 3.5%5 goals: 6.4%6 goals: 9.9%7 goals: 12.5%8 goals: 13.7%9 goals: 13.5%10 goals: 11.6%11 goals: 9.5%12 goals: 6.6%13 goals: 4.4%14 goals: 2.8%15 goals: 1.6%16 goals: 0.9%17 goals: 0.8%7.524681012141614%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Newcastle Northstars @ Sydney Bears5:00 PM AEST

Projected xG · Sydney Bears 3.91 · Newcastle Northstars 4.67 · total 8.58  
back-to-back: Newcastle Northstars · not priced in

Moneyline

| Team                 | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Sydney Bears         | \-208 | 67.5%   | 41.1% | +143  | \-26.4% |
| Newcastle Northstars | +155  | 39.2%   | 58.9% | \-143 | +19.7%  |

Total goals · line 8.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Over 8.5  | \-139 | 58.2%   | 48.6% | +106  | \-9.5% |
| Under 8.5 | +100  | 50.0%   | 51.4% | \-106 | +1.4%  |

Projected total goals

2 goals: 0.7%3 goals: 1.7%4 goals: 4.1%5 goals: 7.1%6 goals: 10.4%7 goals: 13.2%8 goals: 14.1%9 goals: 13.2%10 goals: 11.4%11 goals: 8.8%12 goals: 6.1%13 goals: 4.0%14 goals: 2.4%15 goals: 1.4%16 goals: 0.7%17 goals: 0.7%8.524681012141614%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Perth Thunder @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:15 PM ACST

Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 2.66 · Perth Thunder 5.32 · total 7.98  
back-to-back: Adelaide Adrenaline & Perth Thunder · not priced in

Moneyline

| Team                | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| ------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Adelaide Adrenaline | +275  | 26.7%   | 20.4% | +391  | \-6.3% |
| Perth Thunder       | \-455 | 82.0%   | 79.7% | \-391 | \-2.3% |

Total goals · line 8.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Over 8.5  | +100  | 50.0%   | 40.2% | +148  | \-9.8% |
| Under 8.5 | \-139 | 58.2%   | 59.8% | \-148 | +1.6%  |

Projected total goals

2 goals: 1.1%3 goals: 2.7%4 goals: 5.5%5 goals: 9.2%6 goals: 12.5%7 goals: 14.3%8 goals: 14.3%9 goals: 12.8%10 goals: 10.1%11 goals: 7.0%12 goals: 4.6%13 goals: 2.7%14 goals: 1.6%15 goals: 0.8%16 goals: 0.7%8.524681012141614%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.