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# AIHL Projections 22nd Aug
- URL: https://thepuckline.com/aihl-projections-22nd-a/
- Published: 2026-08-21T11:44:28.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-21T11:44:28.000Z
- Author: Josh Boulton

# AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-08-21 12:20 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game

## Top value bets · edge > +3%

| Game                                 | Market    | Bet                | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge   |
| ------------------------------------ | --------- | ------------------ | ---- | ------- | ----- | ------ |
| Sydney Ice Dogs @ Brisbane Lightning | Moneyline | Brisbane Lightning | +350 | 22.2%   | 42.4% | +20.2% |
| Perth Thunder @ Adelaide Adrenaline  | Total     | Under 8.5          | +120 | 45.5%   | 58.5% | +13.0% |

Newcastle Northstars @ Central Coast Rhinos3:45 PM AEST

Projected xG · Central Coast Rhinos 3.38 · Newcastle Northstars 6.84 · total 10.21

Moneyline

| Team                 | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Central Coast Rhinos | +375  | 21.1%   | 17.0% | +489  | \-4.1% |
| Newcastle Northstars | \-667 | 87.0%   | 83.0% | \-489 | \-3.9% |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Over 9.5  | \-167 | 62.5%   | 56.8% | \-131 | \-5.8% |
| Under 9.5 | +120  | 45.5%   | 43.2% | +131  | \-2.2% |

Projected total goals

3 goals: 0.7%4 goals: 1.6%5 goals: 3.2%6 goals: 5.7%7 goals: 8.6%8 goals: 11.0%9 goals: 12.5%10 goals: 12.5%11 goals: 11.9%12 goals: 9.8%13 goals: 7.8%14 goals: 5.7%15 goals: 3.8%16 goals: 2.3%17 goals: 1.4%18 goals: 0.8%19 goals: 0.9%9.53579111315171913%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Sydney Ice Dogs @ Brisbane Lightning4:45 PM AEST

Projected xG · Brisbane Lightning 5.25 · Sydney Ice Dogs 5.98 · total 11.22

Moneyline

| Team               | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ------------------ | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Brisbane Lightning | +350  | 22.2%   | 42.4% | +136  | +20.2%  |
| Sydney Ice Dogs    | \-625 | 86.2%   | 57.6% | \-136 | \-28.6% |

Total goals · line 10.5

| Bet        | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| ---------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Over 10.5  | \-167 | 62.5%   | 56.8% | \-131 | \-5.8% |
| Under 10.5 | +120  | 45.5%   | 43.2% | +131  | \-2.3% |

Projected total goals

4 goals: 1.1%5 goals: 1.7%6 goals: 3.5%7 goals: 5.9%8 goals: 8.4%9 goals: 10.5%10 goals: 12.1%11 goals: 12.2%12 goals: 11.3%13 goals: 9.8%14 goals: 7.8%15 goals: 5.7%16 goals: 4.0%17 goals: 2.5%18 goals: 1.6%19 goals: 0.9%20 goals: 0.5%21 goals: 0.5%10.546810121416182012%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Canberra Brave @ Melbourne Ice5:00 PM AEST

Projected xG · Melbourne Ice 4.66 · Canberra Brave 4.79 · total 9.45

Moneyline

| Team           | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| -------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Melbourne Ice  | \-111 | 52.6%   | 48.3% | +107  | \-4.3% |
| Canberra Brave | \-125 | 55.6%   | 51.7% | \-107 | \-3.9% |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Over 9.5  | +100  | 50.0%   | 47.1% | +112  | \-2.9% |
| Under 9.5 | \-139 | 58.2%   | 52.9% | \-112 | \-5.2% |

Projected total goals

3 goals: 1.2%4 goals: 2.3%5 goals: 4.7%6 goals: 7.8%7 goals: 10.8%8 goals: 12.6%9 goals: 13.5%10 goals: 12.7%11 goals: 10.9%12 goals: 8.6%13 goals: 5.8%14 goals: 3.9%15 goals: 2.4%16 goals: 1.4%17 goals: 0.8%18 goals: 0.7%9.535791113151713%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Perth Thunder @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:45 PM ACST

Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 2.78 · Perth Thunder 5.29 · total 8.07

Moneyline

| Team                | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| ------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Adelaide Adrenaline | +325  | 23.5%   | 21.6% | +363  | \-1.9% |
| Perth Thunder       | \-556 | 84.8%   | 78.4% | \-363 | \-6.3% |

Total goals · line 8.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 8.5  | \-167 | 62.5%   | 41.5% | +141  | \-21.0% |
| Under 8.5 | +120  | 45.5%   | 58.5% | \-141 | +13.0%  |

Projected total goals

2 goals: 1.1%3 goals: 2.6%4 goals: 5.2%5 goals: 8.8%6 goals: 12.3%7 goals: 14.1%8 goals: 14.4%9 goals: 12.6%10 goals: 10.1%11 goals: 7.4%12 goals: 5.0%13 goals: 3.0%14 goals: 1.7%15 goals: 0.9%16 goals: 0.8%8.524681012141614%

Green = Over wins · red = Under wins

Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.