> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://thepuckline.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # AIHL games July 19th - URL: https://thepuckline.com/aihl-games-july-19th/ - Published: 2026-07-18T20:13:27.000Z - Updated: 2026-07-18T20:13:27.000Z - Author: Josh Boulton # AIHL Betting Dashboard Generated 2026-07-18 20:38 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 negative-binomial sims/game ## Top value bets · edge > +3% | Game | Market | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | | ------------------------------------- | --------- | ------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ------ | | Sydney Bears @ Melbourne Mustangs | Moneyline | Sydney Bears | +250 | 28.6% | 40.5% | +12.0% | | Adelaide Adrenaline @ Sydney Ice Dogs | Moneyline | Adelaide Adrenaline | +550 | 15.4% | 24.6% | +9.3% | | Canberra Brave @ Brisbane Lightning | Total | Over 9.5 | \-133 | 57.1% | 61.4% | +4.3% | | Canberra Brave @ Brisbane Lightning | Moneyline | Brisbane Lightning | +175 | 36.4% | 40.6% | +4.2% | Sydney Bears @ Melbourne Mustangs2:00 PM AEST Projected xG · Melbourne Mustangs 4.75 · Sydney Bears 3.93 · total 8.68 back-to-back: Sydney Bears · not priced in Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | ------------------ | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Melbourne Mustangs | \-400 | 80.0% | 59.5% | \-147 | \-20.5% | | Sydney Bears | +250 | 28.6% | 40.5% | +147 | +12.0% | Total goals · line 8.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ | | Over 8.5 | \-133 | 57.1% | 50.1% | \-101 | \-6.9% | | Under 8.5 | \-105 | 51.2% | 49.9% | +101 | \-1.4% | Projected total goals 2 goals: 0.6%3 goals: 1.7%4 goals: 3.8%5 goals: 6.9%6 goals: 10.3%7 goals: 12.7%8 goals: 13.9%9 goals: 13.2%10 goals: 11.7%11 goals: 9.1%12 goals: 6.3%13 goals: 4.2%14 goals: 2.6%15 goals: 1.5%16 goals: 0.7%17 goals: 0.8%8.524681012141614% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Canberra Brave @ Brisbane Lightning3:45 PM AEST Projected xG · Brisbane Lightning 4.84 · Canberra Brave 5.74 · total 10.57 Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | ------------------ | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Brisbane Lightning | +175 | 36.4% | 40.6% | +147 | +4.2% | | Canberra Brave | \-250 | 71.4% | 59.4% | \-147 | \-12.0% | Total goals · line 9.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Over 9.5 | \-133 | 57.1% | 61.4% | \-159 | +4.3% | | Under 9.5 | \-105 | 51.2% | 38.6% | +159 | \-12.6% | Projected total goals 3 goals: 0.5%4 goals: 1.1%5 goals: 2.6%6 goals: 4.8%7 goals: 7.5%8 goals: 10.0%9 goals: 12.1%10 goals: 12.8%11 goals: 12.0%12 goals: 10.6%13 goals: 8.5%14 goals: 6.4%15 goals: 4.5%16 goals: 2.8%17 goals: 1.8%18 goals: 1.0%19 goals: 0.6%20 goals: 0.6%9.53579111315171913% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Adelaide Adrenaline @ Sydney Ice Dogs5:00 PM AEST Projected xG · Sydney Ice Dogs 5.39 · Adelaide Adrenaline 3.11 · total 8.50 back-to-back: Sydney Ice Dogs & Adelaide Adrenaline · not priced in Moneyline | Team | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | ------------------- | ------ | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- | | Sydney Ice Dogs | \-1000 | 90.9% | 75.3% | \-306 | \-15.6% | | Adelaide Adrenaline | +550 | 15.4% | 24.6% | +306 | +9.3% | Total goals · line 8.5 | Bet | Odds | Implied | Model | Fair | Edge | | --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ | | Over 8.5 | \-111 | 52.6% | 47.6% | +110 | \-5.0% | | Under 8.5 | \-125 | 55.6% | 52.4% | \-110 | \-3.1% | Projected total goals 2 goals: 0.7%3 goals: 1.9%4 goals: 4.1%5 goals: 7.6%6 goals: 10.7%7 goals: 13.3%8 goals: 14.0%9 goals: 13.4%10 goals: 11.3%11 goals: 8.7%12 goals: 5.8%13 goals: 3.7%14 goals: 2.2%15 goals: 1.2%16 goals: 0.7%17 goals: 0.5%8.524681012141614% Green = Over wins · red = Under wins Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.