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# AHIL Projections July 12th
- URL: https://thepuckline.com/ahil-game-12th-july/
- Published: 2026-07-11T12:13:18.000Z
- Updated: 2026-07-11T12:14:11.000Z
- Author: Josh Boulton

# AIHL Betting Dashboard

Generated 2026-07-11 13:11 · edge = model% − market-implied% · 100,000 Poisson sims/game

## Top value bets · edge > +3%

| Game                                      | Market    | Bet                 | Odds  | Implied | Model | Edge   |
| ----------------------------------------- | --------- | ------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ------ |
| Melbourne Mustangs @ Adelaide Adrenaline  | Total     | Under 9.5           | \-105 | 51.2%   | 67.2% | +16.0% |
| Melbourne Mustangs @ Adelaide Adrenaline  | Moneyline | Adelaide Adrenaline | +600  | 14.3%   | 24.6% | +10.3% |
| Brisbane Lightning @ Newcastle Northstars | Moneyline | Brisbane Lightning  | +500  | 16.7%   | 22.2% | +5.5%  |

Brisbane Lightning @ Newcastle Northstars3:30 PM AEST

Projected xG · Newcastle Northstars 6.87 · Brisbane Lightning 4.31 · total 11.19

Moneyline

| Team                 | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Newcastle Northstars | \-909 | 90.1%   | 77.8% | \-350 | \-12.3% |
| Brisbane Lightning   | +500  | 16.7%   | 22.2% | +350  | +5.5%   |

Total goals · line 10.5

| Bet        | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| ---------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Over 10.5  | \-143 | 58.9%   | 56.2% | \-128 | \-2.7% |
| Under 10.5 | +110  | 47.6%   | 43.8% | +128  | \-3.8% |

Central Coast Rhinos @ Sydney Bears5:00 PM AEST

Projected xG · Sydney Bears 5.81 · Central Coast Rhinos 3.50 · total 9.31

Moneyline

| Team                 | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| -------------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Sydney Bears         | \-455 | 82.0%   | 77.1% | \-337 | \-4.9% |
| Central Coast Rhinos | +275  | 26.7%   | 22.9% | +337  | \-3.8% |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Over 9.5  | \-118 | 54.1%   | 45.4% | +120  | \-8.7% |
| Under 9.5 | \-118 | 54.1%   | 54.6% | \-120 | +0.5%  |

Melbourne Mustangs @ Adelaide Adrenaline4:15 PM ACST

Projected xG · Adelaide Adrenaline 3.17 · Melbourne Mustangs 5.16 · total 8.34

Moneyline

| Team                | Odds   | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| ------------------- | ------ | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Adelaide Adrenaline | +600   | 14.3%   | 24.6% | +307  | +10.3%  |
| Melbourne Mustangs  | \-1250 | 92.6%   | 75.4% | \-307 | \-17.2% |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge    |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------- |
| Over 9.5  | \-133 | 57.1%   | 32.8% | +205  | \-24.3% |
| Under 9.5 | \-105 | 51.2%   | 67.2% | \-205 | +16.0%  |

Melbourne Ice @ Perth Thunder4:00 PM AWST

Projected xG · Perth Thunder 5.25 · Melbourne Ice 4.00 · total 9.25

Moneyline

| Team          | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| ------------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Perth Thunder | \-238 | 70.4%   | 65.9% | \-193 | \-4.5% |
| Melbourne Ice | +170  | 37.0%   | 34.1% | +193  | \-3.0% |

Total goals · line 9.5

| Bet       | Odds  | Implied | Model | Fair  | Edge   |
| --------- | ----- | ------- | ----- | ----- | ------ |
| Over 9.5  | \-118 | 54.1%   | 44.5% | +125  | \-9.6% |
| Under 9.5 | \-118 | 54.1%   | 55.5% | \-125 | +1.4%  |

Odds American; probabilities as percentages. Green = edge > +3%, red = negative edge. Model output only — not betting advice.